Writing
I’ve published hundreds of books, essays, and reports. Many of these were technical studies of issues in sustainability science and policy, but as my focused turned to overarching questions of the world condition and future, so did my publications. The selection assembled here draws from my writings on the character of the historic moment, global scenarios, and the problem of action.
Journey to Earthland: The Great Transition to Planetary Civilization
Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead
Where are we? Where might we be going? This path-breaking 2002 treatise synthesized the work of the Global Scenario Group, an international collaboration on the contemporary predicament. The core thesis holds that a world-historic shift is underway from the Modern Era to a new era, the Planetary Phase of Civilization. This perspective reveals the many crises unfolding around us as the birth pangs of the globally integrated social-ecological system now emerging. With the shape of the future deeply uncertain, the essay examines alternative scenarios for the twenty-first century: structural continuity (Conventional Worlds), regressive devolution (Barbarization), and progressive transformation (Great Transitions). The scenarios exercise the visionary imagination while guiding action in the here-and-now. A Great Transition to a just and flourishing civilization may be improbable, but remains possible—if we act to make it so.
Interrogating the Anthropocene: Truth and Fallacy
Human activity has catapulted Earth out of one geological era, the benign Holocene, and into a new one, the perilous Anthropocene. The recognition of our species as a planet-transforming colossus has jolted the sense of who we are and how we must act. Yet, as a social paradigm, the Anthropocene yokes its profound insight
about planetary history to a profound misconception about human history. The emphasis on an aggregate human “we” obscures the roots of the crisis in the modern world system, and thereby distracts from root-and-branch remedies for transforming that system.
World lines: A framework for exploring global pathways
This paper introduces a methodological framework for thinking about the global future in an organized way. The map of the future is a tangled web of possible pathways as the the trajectory of history unfolds and pivots. These alternative “world lines” are etched by the ways critical bio-physical and social uncertainties are resolved. The forms of human agency—collective choices yet to be made and action yet to be taken—that emerge will play a key role. If political and cultural innovations fail to mute system stressors, the world line could zigzag toward a barbarized future. If citizens act with foresight and unity, the line could bend toward a resilient civilization. As our rapidly changing planetary condition faces a deeply uncertain future, the stage is set for a great descent or a great transition.
Planetary Praxis: On Rhyming Hope and History
Who will change the world? In the face of mounting global risks and feeble official responses, this chapter examines the new forms of collective mobilization we need to reach a decent future. The hope for transformational change rests with human consciousness and collective action rising to embrace one integral planet. Although hardly guaranteed, the possibility of an inclusive ethos and politics emerging is made plausible by the condition of our era: extended interdependencies, shared perils, and common opportunities. The critical actor, now missing from the world stage: a pluralistic global citizens movement working towards realizing a vision of a sustainable and just civilization in this century. This chapter describes what such a systemic movement would look like and the proactive campaigns we urgently need to bring it to life.
Future
My contribution to the Berkshire Encyclopedia of Sustainability examined the evolving concept of the future in human culture. In the contemporary context, awareness that the actions of current generations are diminishing the prospects for future generations and the wider community of life, links the future to the present in historically unprecedented ways. The idea of tomorrow has never felt so close to the reality of today, with profound ethical and political implications.
Global Sustainability: Bending the Curve
This book has three major foci. First, it introduces the concept of global sustainability, sets quantitative targets for achieving sustainable development, and assesses the contemporary state-of-the-world with reference to these criteria. Second, it reviews elements of scenario analysis, characterizes the deep uncertainties going forward, and provides a framework of contrasting scenarios for the twenty-first-century. Third, it reports on detailed quantitative simulations of these alternatives, illuminates the daunting challenge of bending the trajectory of the future toward sustainability, and identifies the technological, social and institutional shifts needed.